NAAMSA SALES FIGURES – STANDARD BANK SOUTH AFRICA COMMENTS







Published by Gerald Ferreira Date: January 9, 2013
Categories: General News

Comments on NAAMSA New Vehicle Sales Report – December 2012 (and Full Year 2012 Sales Statistics)

Sydney Soundy

Sydney Soundy – Head of Standard Bank Vehicle Asset Finance

Sales Performance Summary – Total by Market Segment (NAAMSA flash only has one version that includes Namibia, Lesotho, Swaziland & Botswana):

Vehicle Sales Month on Month - 2012
November 2012 December 2012 Varience
PAS 36,682 33,043 -9.92%
LCV 13,969 11,130 -20.32%
MCV 898 722 -19.60%
HCV 423 333 -21.28%
XHV 1,090 647 -40.64%
BUS 82 141 71.95%
TOTAL 53,144 46,016 -13.41%
Vehicle Sales Same Month - 2011 vs 2012
December 2011 December 2012 Varience
PAS 30,713 33,043 7.89%
LCV 12,814 11,130 -13.14%
MCV 669 722 7.92%
HCV 279 333 19.35%
XHV 640 647 1.09%
BUS 76 141 85.53%
TOTAL 45,191 46,016 1.83%
Year to Date (Jan to Dec) - 2011 vs 2012
2011 2012 Varience
PAS 395,429 439,997 11.27%
LCV 149,287 156,170 4.61%
MCV 9,259 9,816 6.02%
HCV 4,704 4,945 5.12%
XHV 11,750 11,894 1.23%
BUS 986 1,092 10.75%
TOTAL 571,415 623,914 9.19%

Vehicle Sales Performance Summary – Exports:

Month on Month - 2012
Exports November 2012 December 2012 Varience
PAS 17,083 10,693 -37.4%
LCV 11,354 8,995 -20.8%
MCV 25 1 -96.0%
HCV 22 5 -77.3%
XHV 19 19 0.0%
BUS 13 6 -53.8%
TOTAL 28,516 19,719 -30.8%
Same Month - 2011 vs 2012
December 2011 December 2012 Varience
PAS 7,523 10,693 42.1%
LCV 6,574 8,995 36.8%
MCV 2 1 -50.0%
HCV 6 5 -16.7%
XHV 51 19 -62.7%
BUS 9 6 -33.3%
TOTAL 14,165 19,719 39.2%
Year to Date (Jan to Dec) - 2011 vs 2012
2011 2012 Varience
PAS 183,535 153,195 -16.5%
LCV 84,125 123,584 46.9%
MCV 132 165 25.0%
HCV 138 231 67.4%
XHV 441 517 17.2%
BUS 90 152 68.9%
TOTAL 268,461 277,844 3.5%

General comments on 2012 NAAMSA vehicle sales numbers:

  • Despite subdued economic growth in 2012, new vehicle sales performed well for the year. The number of factors that supported domestic sales during the year include:
    • The consistently low interest rates throughout the year – including a further 0.5% reduction in the middle of the year (July 2012);
    • Continued stability in vehicle affordability, in real terms – lower vehicle price inflation;
    • A variety of new model introductions offering wide consumer choices;
    • Relatively improved stock availability;
    • Competitive activities of industry players leading to industry incentives, special offers and packages for consumers;
    • Vehicle replacement demand;
  • The factors that may have restricted higher sales growth include:
    • Increases in food prices, energy and transport costs impacting on consumer disposable income.
    • High consumer Debt to Disposable Income levels, and moderate consumer spending on durable goods.
    • The Marikana episode, as well as the levels of industrial action that followed in sectors of the economy would also have impacted on business confidence;
    • The transport sector strike during October 2012 may particularly have affected vehicle production and exports.
  • The year’s growth in total vehicle sales of 9.2% is in line with growth expectations for 2012. Passenger Vehicles were the main volume drivers of growth, at 11.3%.
  • The volumes in December 2012 are in line with seasonality for the month.
  • Vehicle exports have seen modest growth
    • Exports to Europe have been subdued as a result of the recession and debt crisis in the Eurozone.
    • The global economic conditions will remain a big determinant for the export business – diversified export markets will help to mitigate the impact.

Other Observations

  • Year on year growth in the sales of Diesel, Hybrid Petrol engine vehicles has been higher than Petrol engine vehicles in 2012.
  • There are no significant differences in growth between vehicles of different engine sizes. However, a shift towards affordable vehicles is evident based on sales volumes in different price categories.
    • There are competitively priced, high specification and quality vehicles available to the buyer in different categories – this can be one of the factors that are driving the growth in all engine sizes.
    • Relatively high fuel prices should also reinforce the growing trend in favour of more fuel efficient vehicles.

Key Consumer Trends

  • The Household Debt to Disposable Income ratio remains fairly high at just over 76%.
    • Consistent with the lower interest rate levels, the ratio of Debt Service Cost to Disposable Income decreased to 6.5% in the third quarter of 2012 compared to 6.9% recorded in the preceding quarter.
  • The number of consumers with impaired credit records also remains relatively very high, making up 46.7% of the total credit active consumer base (according to the NCR).
  • Low entry level, and fuel efficient vehicles remain popular particularly resulting from the increased running cost of vehicles.
    • The increased fuel prices have impacted on the running costs of vehicles. Fuel prices have risen by 39.98% in petrol (inland) and 45.27% in diesel (inland) since January 2011 (January 2011 to December 2012). Further, the price of fuel in the country has gone up 60.78% in petrol (inland) and 57.03% diesel (inland) since 2008. (Reference: Statistics from the Department of Energy).
    • The impact of Gauteng toll fees (when they are implemented) will add to the transportation costs.

Outlook for 2013

  • Projections from industry players and analysts range from a conservative flat (zero percentage) growth to an optimistic growth of 8%. Our view is a projected growth of 6% in 2013. The projected growth is derived from some key considerations:
    • Consensus amongst economists expects the GDP growth to be muted in 2013 – Standard Bank Economics Desk projects GDP growth around 3.1%.
    • Interest Rates are expected to remain at low levels;
    • No significant improvement, if any, is expected on Personal Disposable Income levels;
    • The impact of Exchange Rate movements on vehicle prices;
    • Potential inflationary pressures – expectations are that the current Consumer Price Index (CPI) levels will prevail, but that Vehicle Price Inflation may come under pressure from the Rand Exchange Rate movements;
    • Continued introduction of new products and industry competition is expected to stimulate sales activity;
    • The domestic new vehicle sales baseline set in 2012 has surpassed the 600,000 figures last experienced in the period between 2005 and 2007, and has seen consistent growth on a yearly basis since the plunge experienced in 2009 when only 395,000 new vehicles were sold. Therefore, sales will be coming of a bigger base.